"They're Off and Running!" by Scott Mantz

Many people like to think of the Golden Globes as a forerunner to the Academy Awards, but I don't buy it. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which nominates the Golden Globes, has only 72 members, while the Motion Picture Academy of Arts and Sciences, which picks the Oscars, has over 5500. No matter how you look at it, the Academy Awards are an event unto themselves. As for the winners, that's anybody's guess.

Speaking of guessing, after months of speculation and false starts, the race officially got under way on February 15 with the announcement of the nominations for the 72nd Annual Academy Awards. As actor Dustin Hoffman and Academy President Robert Rheme made their way to the podium to read the list of lucky contenders, millions sat on the edge of their seats, biting their nails down to the skin, anxiously awaiting the results, and for good reason.

It goes without saying that 1999 was a particularly extraordinary year for quality films. Whereas previous years had one or two surefire contenders that were guaranteed to make the list of nominees, 1999 had so many good films that it made Oscar speculation more difficult than usual. While certain films, like "American Beauty" and "The Insider", were surefire nominees, the final tally contained some pretty big surprises.

"American Beauty" led the way with a total of 8 total nominations, while "The Cider House Rules" and "The Insider" tied for second place with 7 each. Kevin Spacey and Annette Bening both got noms for Best Actor and Best Actress respectively (we all saw that coming), and Haley Joel Osment's nomination for Best Supporting Actor was practically guaranteed.

While there were some surprises on the list of nominees, it's what didn't get nominated that was even more surprising. Matt Damon was excellent in "The Talented Mr. Ripley", but apparently he wasn't talented enough to get a Best Actor nomination. "The Cider House Rules" was a sweet little film, but it wasn't sweet enough to deserve 7 nods. Some other surprises were for "The Green Mile" as Best Picture (Huh? Sitting through that film was almost like a death sentence in itself), Sean Penn as Best Actor for "Sweet and Lowdown" (Geez, the Academy sure loves Woody Allen), and Spike Jonze as Best Director for "Being John Malkovich" (well deserved, but the movie seemed a little too hip for the usually stuffy Academy).

By far the biggest surprise of all was the omission of Jim Carrey from the Best Actor list. This makes the second year in a row that he won a Golden Globe, but didn't even get nominated for an Oscar. There's no doubt that his role as Andy Kaufman in "Man on the Moon" was superb, but perhaps Academy members felt he was simply doing a really good impersonation as opposed to an actual performance. Still, that's gotta hurt!

Now that the official list has been announced, the tide has changed from predicting who will get nominated to who will actually win. There's still plenty of time before Cruise and Kidman take the walk down the red carpet, but let the predictions begin! As with most moviegoers, I haven't seen all the films, but I definitely saw enough of them to make worthy educated guesses. So, without further ado, here's the list of nominees for the major categories, followed by my own choices for who should be rightful owners of the coveted Oscar gold.

1) Best Supporting Actor - Michael Caine, "The Cider House Rules"; Tom Cruise, "Magnolia"; Michael Clarke Duncan, "The Green Mile"; Jude Law, "The Talented Mr. Ripley"; Haley Joel Osment, "The Sixth Sense".

Jude Law had such a lively presence in "The Talented Mr. Ripley", that when his character died, the movie died along with it. Still, he and Michael Clarke Duncan don't stand a chance. There's no doubt that Tom Cruise was outstanding, and after being overlooked for Best Actor in "Born on the Fourth of July" and "Jerry Maguire", some would say that his time has come--that is, if you don't include Haley Joel Osment. With a head-turning performance in "The Sixth Sense", Osment stole the rug right out from under Bruce Willis. Considering the amount of screen time he had, he actually should have been nominated for Best Actor instead of Best Supporting Actor.

Final Prediction: Osment may sense the Oscar, but Cruise will win with his eyes wide open.

2) Best Supporting Actress - Toni Collette, "The Sixth Sense"; Angelina Jolie, "Girl, Interrupted"; Catherine Keener, "Being John Malkovich"; Samantha Morton, "Sweet and Lowdown"; Chloe Sevigny, "Boys Don't Cry".

This one's a toughie! Toni Collette's nomination for "The Sixth Sense" was well deserved. She had a huge shadow hanging over her from Bruce Willis, Haley Joel Osment, and the famous killer ending, but she held her own and shined through as the sensitive and desperate single mother. Catherine Keener personified the words "sexy" and "insensitive", but she did all that before in 1997's "Your Friends and Neighbors". This one's a toss up between Angelina Jolie and Chloe Sevigny. While Jolie can read from an instruction manual on programming your VCR and make it sound good, Sevigny's powerful performance and in a powerful (and true) story simply cannot be overlooked.

Final Prediction: Sevigny won't cry when she makes her way to the podium.

3) Best Actor - Russell Crowe, "The Insider"; Richard Farnsworth, "The Straight Story"; Sean Penn, "Sweet and Lowdown"; Kevin Spacey, "American Beauty"; Denzel Washington, "The Hurricane".

Trying to predict the nominations for this one was tough enough, but there's no doubt who the winner is going be. Russell Crowe's subdued implosion as the tobacco whistle blower was extraordinary, and Kevin Spacey's wake up call to reclaim his life was liberating. However, they cannot compare to Denzel Washington, who ended up with what is by far the most remarkable performance of the year. His physical and emotional transformation from a vibrant boxing contender to a wrongly accused prisoner is nothing short of miraculous.

Final Prediction: Washington causes quite a storm during his acceptance speech.

4) Best Actress - Annette Bening, "American Beauty"; Janet McTeer, "Tumbleweeds"; Julianne Moore, "The End of the Affair"; Meryl Streep, "Music of the Heart", Hilary Swank, "Boys Don't Cry".

Finally, a Best Actress category without a nomination for a woman playing either a prostitute or a drug addict. Being a good actor in a bad movie didn't stop Jessica Lange from nabbing the Best Actress trophy for "Blue Sky", but after 12 nominations to her credit, Meryl Streep could have done better than "Music of the Heart". While Julianne Moore and Janet McTeer had standout performances in their films, they can't hold a candle to Hilary Swank's star making performance in "Boys Don't Cry" as a woman trying to be a man. As with Denzel Washington, she undergoes a physical and emotional transformation so convincing, it's a wonder she wasn't nominated for Best Actor.

Final Prediction: Let's hear it for Swank's "Boys".

5) Best Foreign Film - "All About My Mother," Spain; "Caravan," Nepal; "East-West," France; "Solomon and Gaenor," United Kingdom; "Under the Sun," Sweden.

What? No nomination for Germany's "Run Lola Run"? That's too bad. There's a film that broke the traditional story mold and had a pounding hyperkinetic pace to underscore it. I'll go with "All About My Mother"--it's the only one I saw!

Final Prediction: It's Mother's Day.

6) Best Director - Sam Mendes, "American Beauty"; Spike Jonze, "Being John Malkovich"; Lasse Hallstrom, "The Cider House Rules"; Michael Mann, "The Insider"; M. Night Shyamalan, "The Sixth Sense".

If there was anything that we learned from last year's Academy Awards, it's that winning in the Best Director category doesn't automatically mean that you'll win for Best Picture. Who can forget Steven Spielberg's horrified expression as Harvey Weinstein gleefully strolled to the stage to collect Miramax's award for "Shakespeare in Love". As for this year, the fact that Spike Jonze even got nominated is impressive enough, but attending the ceremony is as close to an Oscar statue as he's going to get. I haven't a clue what rules Lasse Hallstrom broke to get nominated, and Michael Mann has an outside chance of winning for "The Insider". M. Night Shyamalan's direction of "The Sixth Sense" was right on the money, and multiple viewings prove that Shyamalan really covered his bases. That may not compare to Sam Mendes' poetic visual style in "American Beauty", which knocked the American Dream right off it's mythical pedestal.

Final Prediction: Life is beautiful for Sam Mendes.

7) Best Picture - "American Beauty", "The Cider House Rules", "The Green Mile", "The Insider", "The Sixth Sense".

Another lesson we learned, this one from the awards show two years ago, is that just because a film does gangbusters at the box office, don't rule it out as a Best Picture contender. "Titanic", the highest grossing film of all time, swept the 1998 Academy Awards with 11 wins, including Best Picture. Also, the horror genre is still alive and well. If "The Silence of the Lambs" can win for Best Picture of 1991, what's to stop "The Sixth Sense" from doing the same thing for Best Picture of 1999? Good question. Everybody loves that film, but everybody also loves "American Beauty".

Final Prediction: It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood.

I was particularly disappointed by the omission of "Three Kings" from any of the major categories. With it's top-notch acting, powerful story, smart script, and brilliant cinematography, this was a critical favorite when it came out, but it has since been left in the dust by the rest of the contenders. Still, in my opinion, it is one of the best films of the year.

Anyway, that's just the tip of the iceberg. There's plenty of awards to be given out, and you can see them all on the big day in March. Brace yourself for a long show, but so what? This is Hollywood's big night out, so what's the rush? Take your time, sit back, and enjoy the festivities. If you get bored, you can always run out after the first 30 minutes and come back in time for the big winners. All I know is, come March 26, I'll be watching as an insider, checking off my list to see if my sixth sense was an American beauty.

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