"The Empire Strikes Back!"
by Scott Mantz

2000

Who says that the Roman Empire fell? Certainly not moviegoers, and definitely not Academy members. Last year, not only did the swords and sandals epic "Gladiator" slay moviegoers to the tune of $186 million at the box office, but on the cold, rainy, blustery morning of February 13, 2001, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences honored the big budget toga party with a whopping 12 Oscar nominations.

Come to think of it, martial arts movies seem to be doing pretty good too. Not only did Ang Lee's majestic masterpiece "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" receive 10 nominations (making it the most nominated foreign language film in Oscar history), but the film also topped 1998's "Life is Beautiful" to become the highest grossing foreign film of all time.

It's easy to see why both films received so many nominations. Even though they take place on opposite ends of the earth and in totally different time periods, "Gladiator" and "Crouching Tiger" actually have a lot in common. Beyond the incredible action sequences and jaw-dropping stunts, the two films are firmly rooted in the time-honored traditions of love, honor, and courage.

As always, the real surprises came not with what did get nominated, but with what didn't get nominated. Ever since "Wonder Boys" came out last February, Michael Douglas has been reaping critical praise for his performance as a burned out college professor. His nomination in the Best Actor category was all but assured, especially after Paramount--disappointed with the film's initial box office take--re-released it later in the year to boost its Oscar chances. No such luck. While "Wonder Boys" scored a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay, Douglas' omission was even more shocking than Jim Carrey's slight the previous year for "Man on the Moon."

Without a doubt, the biggest upset came when "Almost Famous" was locked out of both the Best Picture and the Best Director categories. Cameron Crowe's ode to rock journalism turned out to be one of the best-reviewed movies of the year (maybe the critics could relate to it), but it petered out at just over $30 million at the box office. While dismal earnings didn't stop 1999's "The Insider" from getting 6 nominations, it would appear that "almost" wasn't quite enough for the Academy.

Now that the nominations are in, it's time to predict the winners! Some are no-brainers, some are a little tougher, and some are downright impossible. Whatever the case, here are my predictions for Oscar 2001, and whether you agree or disagree, don't forget to make your own predictions and check back in with me on March 25. (And if you lose your office pool, don't say I didn't warn you!).

Best Supporting Actress:

Judi Dench "Chocolat"	Marcia Gay Harden "Pollock"	Kate Husdon "Almost Famous"	Frances McDormand "Almost Famous"	Julie Walters "Billy Elliot"

How ironic that most of these actresses got nominated for playing characters who are either neglected, bitter, or abused. Judi Dench's 8 minutes of screen time in 1998's "Shakespeare in Love" (for which she won an Oscar) are definitely more desirable than her crusty old performance in "Chocolat." Marcia Gay Harden was certainly stellar in "Pollock," and Frances McDormand (also a previous Oscar winner for "Fargo") gave some depth to her borderline-cartoonish performance in "Almost Famous." Still, there's no denying that Kate Hudson blew away the competition as the kind-hearted band-aid.

And the Oscar goes to:
After March 25, Kate Husdon is going to be much more than just almost famous.

Best Supporting Actor:

Jeff Bridges "The Contender"	Willem Dafoe "Shadow of the Vampire"	Benicio Del Toro "Traffic"	Albert Finney "Erin Brockovich"	Joaquin Phoenix "Gladiator"

Watching a Clinton-esque Jeff Bridges take advantage of his presidential power was a beauty to behold in "The Contender," but the film's failure to catch on as the next "All the President's Men" will hamper his chances of winning. The same goes for Willem Dafoe, whose obsessive, crazy, and often hysterical performance wasn't enough to save the otherwise weak "Shadow of the Vampire." There's no doubt that Albert Finney and Julia Roberts complimented each other in "Erin Brockovich," but this race basically comes down to Benicio Del Toro and Joaquin Phoenix. Both gave extraordinary performances, but in completely different ways. Del Toro's understated turn as a conflicted Mexican cop kept moviegoers engaged throughout the course of "Traffic," while Phoenix's over-the-top emperor in "Gladiator" was the type of bad guy that moviegoers love to hate.

And the Oscar goes to:
Traffic comes to a grinding halt when Benicio Del Toro collects his award.

Best Actress:

Joan Allen "The Contender"	Juliette Binoche "Chocolat"	Ellen Burstyn "Requiem for a Dream"	Laura Linney "You Can Count on Me"	Julia Roberts "Erin Brockovich"

Joan Allen's role in "The Contender" seems like it was written specifically for her, but the film turned off as many people as it turned on. Juliette Binoche (already an Oscar winner for 1996's "The English Patient") can practically read from a phone book and make it sound Oscar-worthy, but why she was nominated (as opposed to Gillian Anderson for "The House of Mirth") is beyond me. While Ellen Burstyn's graphic performance as a drug addict in "Requiem for a Dream" is hard to ignore, it may be too graphic for conservative Academy member's tastes. Laura Linney probably deserves the Oscar for her portrayal of an overly responsible sibling in "You Can Count on Me," but let's face it--Julia Roberts simply was "Erin Brockovich." It's been 10 years since her last nomination, and she's long overdue for the big prize.

And the Oscar goes to:
No conspiracy theories here--this pretty woman is finally gonna get her man.

Best Actor:

Javier Bardem "Before Night Falls"	Russell Crowe "Gladiator"	Tom Hanks "Cast Away"	Ed Harris "Pollock"	Geoffrey Rush "Quills"

There's no doubt that Tom Hanks--the nicest guy in Hollywood--goes through a remarkable transformation in "Cast Away," but since the flawed film has only one other nomination going for it (for Best Sound!), he'll likely end up stranded without a win. Ed Harris also undergoes an incredible physical transformation in "Pollock," but hardly anyone even saw the movie, and while Geoffrey Rush commands the screen in "Quills," his scene chewing can get cartoonish at times. That leaves Russell Crowe's strong and heroic turn in "Gladiator," and as long as Academy members don't hold him responsible for Meg Ryan's personal problems, the Oscar is as good as his.

And the Oscar goes to:
After losing last year's award to Kevin Spacey, Crowe will have his vengeance.

Best Director:

Stephen Daldry "Billy Elliot"	Ang Lee "Couching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"	Steven Soderbergh "Erin Brockovich"	Steven Soderbergh "Traffic"	Ridley Scott "Gladiator"

This category is already tighter than the chariot race from "Ben Hur!" Stephen Daldry may have directed the most heartwarming film of the year, but he'll have to settle for the "It's an honor just to be nominated" Award. Steven Soderbergh finds himself in the unique position of competing against himself (a first since 1938), and while "Erin Brockovich" is a sure-fire crowd-pleaser, "Traffic" is clearly the better directed of the two films. Academy members will surely recognize this, but there's always the chance that the votes could be split. That may give Ang Lee the chance to slice through the competition with "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," but look out for Ridley Scott. Not only was he able to cover up "Gladiator's" ultra-thin plot with ravishing beauty and awe-inspiring production values, but he completely redefined the Roman Empire epic in the process.

And the Oscar goes to:
After decades of visionary craftsmanship, Scott takes his rightful place atop the Oscar throne.

Best Picture:

"Chocolat"	"Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"	"Erin Brockovich"	"Gladiator"	"Traffic"

Don't even ask me what "Chocolat" is doing here--it's gooey sentimentality and contrived sweetness were just too fattening for my taste buds. Also, while "Erin Brockovich" was a stellar commercial success, honoring Roberts with the gold will do more than enough justice to the film. "Crouching Tiger" is a lock in the Best Foreign Film category, but considering it's incredible box office success, don't count it out as a possible Best Picture winner. In most cases, the Best Director winner goes on to win Best Picture, and while "Gladiator" will most likely end up victorious, don't rule out "Traffic" just yet. All the performances are sharp, the message is important (and timely), and it sparks heated debates among moviegoers whenever it's brought up.

And the Oscar goes to:
"Gladiator," because the Academy loves an epic.

In the end, these predictions don't mean squat! Remember the Academy Awards ceremony in 1999? I would have bet the house (if I had one) that "Saving Private Ryan" was going to win Best Picture. When Harrison Ford opened the envelope and said "Shakespeare in Love," I almost had a heart attack (and judging by the look on his face, so did director Steven Spielberg). And how about last year's awards? I still say the kid from "The Sixth Sense" was robbed!

No matter. The nominations have been announced, the predictions have been made, and all we can do now is wait. Tom Petty may have sang, "the waiting is the hardest part," but in this case, it sure is fun!

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