"'Ring' Around the Podium?"
by Scott Mantz

2001

February 12, 2002, was a day fit for a king. Well...OK, maybe not a king, but definitely a Lord--as in "The Lord of the Rings." When the nominees were announced for the 74th Annual Academy Awards, director Peter Jackson's epic fantasy led the way with an incredible 13 nominations, followed by "A Beautiful Mind" and "Moulin Rouge" with 8 nominations each.

For the most part, the announcement was about as predictable, uneventful, and anticlimactic as your average Hollywood blockbuster, but there were a few surprises to be found. Topping that list was Ethan Hawke, who finally broke out from the angst-ridden, Gen-X fare he's best known for and held his own against a formidable opponent like his fellow "Training Day" nominee Denzel Washington.

Renee Zellweger's nomination for Best Actress for "Bridget Jones's Diary" was a victory for the petite young singleton on a number of levels. For one thing, Academy voters generally tend to overlook comedic performances, but more importantly, Zellweger had to overcome an enormous amount of public scrutiny when she was first cast as the pleasantly plump British heroine. Even if she doesn't win, her nomination alone should give her a feeling of tremendous vindication.

Sparking more heated debate than those who were nominated were those who were snubbed--specifically, Baz Luhrmann, whose 5-year labor of love "Moulin Rouge" racked up 8 nominations (including Best Picture), but not one for himself as Best Director. Though he still has a chance to go for the gold as one of the film's producers, his oversight in the director's category must have been a crushing blow.

Joining Luhrmann was his "Moulin Rouge" star Ewan McGregor, who was strangely overlooked in the Best Actor category. Even more notable was the omission of Billy Bob Thornton, who gave not one, but two spectacular performances last year (in "The Man Who Wasn't There" and "Monster's Ball"). With Academy voters likely torn between the two films, they probably canceled each other out.

The next few weeks will be ripe for movie buffs, film enthusiasts, and industry experts to predict who will--or who should--clear a space on their mantle for the little golden guy. So, without further ado, here are my picks for who will--or who should--win come Oscar Day on March 24.

Best Supporting Actress:

Jennifer Connelly "A Beautiful Mind"	Helen Mirren "Gosford Park"	Maggie Smith "Gosford Park"	Marisa Tomei "In the Bedroom"	Kate Winslet "Iris"

Kate Winslet may have gotten to a point where she can read from a phone book and still get nominated for it, but despite her feisty turn in "Iris," she's got some stiff competition this year. The same goes for Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith, who may have stood out from the crowded "Gosford Park," but not far enough to match the sheer power of the other nominees. That leaves Marisa Tomei, whose spectacular performance in "In the Bedroom" finally put to rest all the talk of her being a "fluke" for her Oscar-winning turn in 1992's "My Cousin Vinny." However, it still goes without saying that this race belongs to Jennifer Connelly. Her efforts to prove herself as a dramatic actress finally paid off with a star-solidifying turn in "A Beautiful Mind," and given how much screen time she had, it was actually much more than a supporting role.

And the Oscar goes to:
Jennifer Connelly, because her beautiful turn as a supportive wife is what made co-star Russell Crowe's ordeal more personal and engaging.

Best Supporting Actor:

Jim Broadbent "Iris"	Ethan Hawke "Training Day"	Ben Kingsley "Sexy Beast"	Ian McKellen "The Lord of the Rings"	Jon Voight "Ali"

As I mentioned, Ethan Hawke will likely have to contend with his "it's an honor just to be nominated" speech. Ian McKellen's commanding, authoritative, and magical turn in "The Lord of the Rings" was about the only performance that stood out from that sprawling juggernaut, and while Jon Voight may have been a dead ringer as legendary sportscaster Howard Cosell in "Ali," his makeup-heavy performance bordered on imitation. Ben Kingsley got about as far away from his saint-like (and Oscar-winning) turn in "Gandhi" as he possibly could, but his foul-mouthed, manic turn as an evil crime boss in "Sexy Beast" may turn off conservative Academy voters. That leaves Jim Broadbent, whose tender, dedicated, and sensitive turn as Judi Dench's supportive husband in "Iris" stands out in a year where he also gave two other great performances (in "Bridget Jones's Diary" and "Moulin Rouge").

And the Oscar goes to:
Jim Broadbent, for the same reason that Jennifer Connelly will win for "A Beautiful Mind."

Best Actress:

Halle Berry "Monster's Ball"	Judi Dench "Iris"	Nicole Kidman "Moulin Rouge"	Sissy Spacek "In the Bedroom"	Renee Zellweger "Bridget Jones's Diary"

Despite their spectacular turns, Renee Zellweger and Judi Dench simply can't hold a candle to the other performances in this category. That especially holds true for Nicole Kidman, but even after rising to the occasion for her physically demanding role in "Moulin Rouge," her passionate performance may have been drowned out by the movie's overbearing, distracting, and hyper-kinetic style. That leaves Sissy Spacek, a previous Oscar-winner who gave a powerfully understated performance in "In the Bedroom," and Halle Berry, who was an outright revelation as a down-and-out widow in "Monster's Ball." (Ironically, both actresses played mothers grieving over the death of a son.)

And the Oscar goes to:
After portraying the first African-American to be nominated for Best Actress (in HBO’s "Introducing Dorothy Dandridge," for which she won an Emmy), Halle Berry could become the first African-American to actually win for Best Actress! How’s that for irony?

Best Actor:

Russell Crowe "A Beautiful Mind"	Sean Penn "I Am Sam"	Will Smith "Ali"	Denzel Washington "Training Day"	Tom Wilkinson "In the Bedroom"

Academy voters have a soft spot for characters with physical or emotional disabilities, but that won't help Sean Penn, whose movie "I Am Sam" was a shamelessly manipulative dud. There's no doubt that Will Smith was a knockout as The Greatest, but many felt that the rest of the movie pulled its punches. Still smarting from his own Oscar defeat for playing a boxer in 1999's "The Hurricane," Denzel Washington could win for his role as a corrupt cop in "Training Day." While Tom Wilkinson gives what is truly the year's best performance as a grieving father in "In the Bedroom," he doesn't stand a chance against so many acting heavyweights. Ultimately, there's no denying that Russell Crowe was simply riveting as a Nobel Prize-winning mathematician battling schizophrenia in "A Beautiful Mind," and if he wins, he'll join Spencer Tracy and Tom Hanks as having back-to-back Best Actor Oscar victories.

And the Oscar goes to:
The numbers add up for Russell Crowe's "beautiful" performance.

Best Director:

Robert Altman "Gosford Park"	Ron Howard "A Beautiful Mind"	Peter Jackson "The Lord of the Rings"	David Lynch "Mulholland Drive"	Ridley Scott "Black Hawk Down"

It's one thing for a director to win and not have his film win for Best Picture (witness Steven Soderbergh for "Traffic"), but it's another thing for the film to not even be nominated. That puts a damper on Ridley Scott's and David Lynch's chances. As for Scott, his gritty, realistic approach to combat was already covered by--and awarded to--Steven Spielberg for 1998's "Saving Private Ryan," and as for Lynch, his bizarre, twisted style may be a little too far out for the Academy. Scoring his 5th nomination and entering his 5th decade as a filmmaker, a victory for Robert Altman would further double as a tribute to his brilliant career. Then again, the Academy could also go for Ron Howard's "A Beautiful Mind." Not only is Howard extremely well-liked among his peers, but many felt that he was snubbed of a nomination for 1995's "Apollo 13." Then again, there's Peter Jackson, who adapted a seemingly unfilmable book into an utterly convincing fantasy world that many said couldn't be done (and in that sense, "The Lord of the Rings" is a virtual lock in the technical categories).

And the Oscar goes to:
Happy days are here again for Ron Howard.

Best Picture:

"The Lord of the Rings"	"A Beautiful Mind"	"Moulin Rouge"	"Gosford Park"	"In the Bedroom"

Typically, the film with the most nominations goes on to win Best Picture (it happened in 18 of the last 20 years). That gives "The Lord of the Rings" a tremendous advantage, but many felt that the film's stunning visual style was emotionally lacking. On the other hand, emotions were the very foundation of the devastating "In the Bedroom," but since helmer Todd Field wasn't even nominated for Best Director, it's chances are slim. The same goes for "Moulin Rouge," a film that's further hampered by having as many detractors as there were supporters. Every twist and turn of the sprawling "Gosford Park" came together in the end, but its stuffy British demeanor may limit its appeal to Academy voters. That leaves "A Beautiful Mind," whose uplifting, triumph-over-tragedy storyline overcame factual controversies to leave Academy voters feeling all warm and fuzzy inside.

And the Oscar goes to:
It's a "beautiful" night for "A Beautiful Mind."

Well, there you have it! In closing, let me reiterate that my choices are not based on any scientific analysis. It's just my opinion, and in most cases, picking the winner came down to a process of elimination. Otherwise, it would have been about as frustrating as trying to predict the winning numbers of the state lottery!

In the end--even with all the awards shows that take place between January and March--it all comes down to one word: Oscar. And come March 24, we'll find out once and for all if Oscar has a "mind" of his own, or if the Academy Awards gala will be a three "ring" circus.

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