"It’s Good to Be the King!"
by Scott Mantz

“Boy, am I glad I don’t work for Miramax!”

That was the general consensus reflected by hoards of Hollywood insiders on the morning of January 27, when “Cold Mountain” – Miramax chairman Harvey Weinstein’s bid for Oscar glory – got the cold shoulder from Academy voters in both the Best Picture and Best Director categories. Actually, those were just some of the surprises at this year’s nominations, and just when industry pundits thought they had the Oscars all figured out, the Motion Picture Academy pulled a fast one and proved that it still had a few tricks up its sleeve.

After earning critical kudos and Golden Globe nominations for their performances in “The Last Samurai,” “Cold Mountain” and “Master and Commander,” many expected Tom Cruise, Nicole Kidman and Russell Crowe to wake up that morning with Oscar nominations as well. They didn’t, and in their place were long shots like Keisha Castle-Hughes, Shohreh Aghdashloo and Hollywood’s latest box office king, Johnny Depp.

Of course, there were plenty of sure things, starting with the 11 nominations racked up by “The Return of the King.” Though it didn’t get recognized in any of the acting categories, the third and final chapter of “The Lord of the Rings” trilogy is widely seen as the best of the series. After the first two films – 2001’s “The Fellowship of the Ring” and 2002’s “The Two Towers” – failed to take home the coveted Best Picture prize, many feel that the “King” will finally get what it deserves.

In the ultimate David vs. Goliath scenario, the mega-budgeted “Return of the King” will face its toughest competition from Sofia Coppola’s $4 million-budgeted “Lost in Translation.” With 4 top nominations, Coppola’s critical darling has the best chance of unseating the “King” from its throne. But even if she doesn’t win, Coppola has already made Academy history by becoming the first American woman to be nominated for Best Director.

Academy members must have had a dark cloud over their heads, because many of the top nominations were for downbeat films. Clint Eastwood’s tragic “Mystic River” racked up 6 nominations, while Ben Kingsley and Shohreh Aghdashloo got recognized for their devastating turns in “House of Sand and Fog.” Naomi Watts and Benicio Del Toro got nominated for the intense “21 Grams,” and Charlize Theron practically blew the lid off the Academy with her uncanny portrayal of a real-life serial killer in “Monster.”

This year’s nominations also nixed the theory that Oscar-worthy pictures only come out at the end of the year. While last year’s Best Picture nominees were released within the last two weeks of 2002, this year’s nominees were much more spread out. “Seabiscuit” opened on July 25, followed by “Lost in Translation” on September 12, “Mystic River” on October 8, “Master and Commander” on November 14 and “The Return of the King” on December 17.

Now that the nominations are out, Hollywood analysts will be busy wracking their brains for the next few weeks trying to figure out who should win – and who will win – on the big night. For what it’s worth, here are my picks, but take them with a grain of salt. After all, you never know…the Academy might still have a few more tricks left up its sleeve.

Best Supporting Actress:

Shohreh Aghdashloo “House of Sand and Fog”	Patricia Clarkson “Pieces of April”	Marcia Gay Harden “Mystic River”	Holly Hunter “Thirteen”	Renee Zellweger “Cold Mountain”

First-time nominees Shohreh Aghdashloo and Patricia Clarkson were simply phenomenal in “House of Sand and Fog” and “Pieces of April” respectively, while Holly Hunter gave a heart-wrenching performance in “Thirteen.” Marcia Gay Harden – a surprise winner for 2000’s “Pollack” – went above and beyond with her devastating turn in “Mystic River,” but many feel that it’s payback time for Renee Zellweger. After losing last year’s Best Actress Oscar to Nicole Kidman, Zellweger stole “Cold Mountain” from her co-star with a fierce, funny and refreshing performance.

And the Oscar goes to:
Ain’t no “Mountain” high enough for Renee Zellweger!

Best Supporting Actor:

Alec Baldwin “The Cooler”	Benicio Del Toro “21 Grams”	Djimon Hounsou “In America”	Tim Robbins “Mystic River”	Ken Watanabee “The Last Samurai”

Alec Baldwin successfully re-invented himself as a supporting actor with “The Cooler,” while Ken Watanabee gave superstar Tom Cruise a run for his money in “The Last Samurai.” After being passed over for 1997’s “Amistad,” Djimon Hounsou was magnetic as a reclusive artist in “In America.” Benicio Del Toro was better in “21 Grams” than he was in 2000’s “Traffic” (for which he won an Oscar), but there’s no denying that Tim Robbins gave the best performance in this category with a tragic, haunting and enormously sympathetic turn in “Mystic River.”

And the Oscar goes to:
: It’s the “Mystic” hour for Tim Robbins!

Best Actress:

Keisha Castle-Hughes “Whale Rider”	Diane Keaton “Something’s Gotta Give”	Samantha Morton “In America”	Charlize Theron “Monster”	Naomi Watts “21 Grams”

The fact that 13-year-old Keisha Castle-Hughes (the youngest-ever Best Actress nominee) got nominated is a testament to the power of this art-house crowd-pleaser. Naomi Watts gave a gut-wrenching performance in “21 Grams,” and Samantha Morton was a pillar of strength in “In America,” but being nominated is as far as they’ll go this year. Academy favorite Diane Keaton shined in “Something’s Gotta Give,” but comedic performances generally don’t fare too well on Oscar night. That leaves Charlize Theron, who – in the spirit of Oscar-winning transformations by Hilary Swank (1999’s “Boys Don’t Cry”) and Halle Berry (2001’s “Monster’s Ball”) – proved that she was more than just a pretty face with her unbelievable turn in “Monster.”

And the Oscar goes to:
It’s a “Monster’s” ball for Charlize Theron.

Best Actor:

Johnny Depp “Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl”	Ben Kingsley “House of Sand and Fog”	Jude Law “Cold Mountain”	Bill Murray “Lost in Translation”	Sean Penn “Mystic River”

Ben Kingsley can read from a phone book and make it sound Oscar-worthy, but the little-seen “House of Sand and Fog” is relentlessly depressing. Jude Law ran a gamut of emotions in “Cold Mountain,” but the heat on the film has cooled down considerably since its Christmas release. Johnny Depp deserves an award for single-handedly making “Pirates of the Caribbean” much better than it deserved to be, but his comedic performance makes him more of a long shot. This race basically comes down to Bill Murray and Sean Penn, who both gave career-defining performances with completely different roles. While neither actor is particularly well-loved by the Academy, Murray did show up to collect his Golden Globe, while Penn – as expected – did not. Will that leave an impression on Academy voters?

And the Oscar goes to:
After getting “lost,” Bill Murray will find his way to the podium!

Best Director:

Fernando Meirelles “City of God”	Peter Jackson “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”	Sofia Coppola “Lost in Translation”	Peter Weir “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World”	Clint Eastwood “Mystic River”

“Cold Mountain” didn’t score a nomination for Best Director, but at least Miramax can boast that Fernando Meirelles got a surprise nod for “City of God.” Peter Weir and Clint Eastwood were in fine form with a masterful seafaring adventure and an old-fashioned ensemble drama respectively, and both would have had a good shot in any other year. Sofia Coppola established herself as an auteur with her moody, atmospheric dramedy “Lost in Translation,” but given the stiff competition here, she might have to settle for an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. That leaves Peter Jackson, who changed motion picture history with his nearly 10-hour adaptation of J.R.R. Tolkien’s classic fantasy series. By rewarding him as Best Director for “The Return of the King,” the Academy would reward his work on the trilogy as a whole.

And the Oscar goes to:
Peter Jackson is the man who will be “King!”

Best Picture:

“The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”	“Lost in Translation”	“Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World”	“Mystic River”	“Seabiscuit”

The fact that “Seabiscuit” director Gary Ross didn’t get a nod for Best Director doesn’t bode well for the film’s chances to win Best Picture. “Master and Commander” may have been a visually lush, adventurous epic, but there really wasn’t much of a story there. On the other hand, “Mystic River” was a completely character-driven story that stayed with you for days, and “Lost in Translation” was an intimate film that struck a chord with critics, moviegoers and awards voters alike. But for the same reason that Peter Jackson will win Best Director, “The Return of the King” will win Best Picture – for concluding a groundbreaking cinematic achievement on an extremely high note.

And the Oscar goes to:
The third time’s the charm for the once and future “King!”

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